Despite Covid-19 taking most major sports away, the NFL Draft provides a glimmer of hope, and most major sportsbooks already revealed their NFL Draft Props. With that said, here are a few props worth targeting.
Jordan Love Over Pick 19.5
The top bet in this year’s NFL Draft cycle: Jordan Love’s over currently sits at pick 19.5 with -180 odds. Originally opening at pick 16.5, this line has already moved three draft slots and continues to see action on the over. From a statistical standpoint, Love simply doesn’t belong in the first-round conversation. NFL Free Picks Love failed to eclipse a 64-percent completion percentage in any of his collegiate seasons. Making matters worse, Love threw 17 interceptions in his final season at Utah State. While many cite a poor supporting cast for Love’s mistakes, 14-percent of Love’s passes when targeting open receivers charted as uncatchable. With serious flaws in accuracy and decision-making, Love simply doesn’t look like a first-round prospect. Zooming out and taking a look at the entire quarterback position, most view Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert as the top three prospects in this class. On average, the third and fourth quarterbacks come off the board at pick 27 and pick 48.8 respectively. Fully expected to come off the board fourth, Love’s overlooks like the top bet of this NFL Draft cycle.
Javon Kinlaw Over Pick 13.5
Despite leaving college as an exciting interior pass rusher, Javon Kinlaw’s player prop remains elevated at pick 13.5. In a weak pass-rushing group, pushing Kinlaw’s draft position to 13.5 makes some sense. However, few suitors pick ahead of the 49ers at 13, making the over the sharper side of this wager.After playing a season in Junior College, Kinlaw bloomed late in his career at South Carolina. He finished 2019 with an 18.1-percent pass rush win rate. This trailed only Jordan Elliott in this class. With 40 total quarterback pressures, Kinlaw looks like a sure-fire top-15 pick at first glance.However, Kinlaw also brings significant concerns, including injury. Kinlaw underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip in 2018 and battled knee tendonitis throughout the pre-draft process this off-season. Also playing a devalued position in the defensive tackle, the suitor looks scarce inside the top 13 picks. While it requires laying some juice, taking over Kinlaw’s draft position looks like the right move in this situation.
Jacob Eason Over Pick 47.5
Another quarterback with an elevated draft position prop is Jacob Eason. His pick sits at 47.5. Hitting the over in this spot requires laying -165 juice, but the over still remains the sharp side of this line. Eason, a quarterback with spotty production in college, initially started at Georgia in 2016 as a true freshman. However, he lost the starting job in 2017 and subsequently transferred to Washington. Finally, starting again in 2019, Eason completed only 64.2-percent of his passes and struggled when pressured. Also lacking mobility, he profiles as a non-accurate, pocket passer, who struggles with pressure. Similar to Jordan Love above, NCAA Football Picks sportsbooks continue to post elevated lines on these quarterback prospects. Most view Eason outside of the top four or five quarterbacks in this class. Again, quarterback four and quarterback five come off the board at picks 48.8 and 82.6 respectively. This leaves value on the over the side of Eason’s NFL Draft prop.
6
20
20
